North American lumber prices have lost almost USD 100 per thousand board feet since their July peak, and conditions remain unfavourable for a sustained recovery during the final months of 2026. US single-family construction has weakened, new-home inventories are high and mortgage rates remain restrictive, while buyers have little incentive to rebuild lumber stocks ahead of the seasonally slower winter period. Supply, however, is moving in the opposite direction: US sawmill capacity has contracted, British Columbia continues to lose production and Canadian shipments to the United States are falling. Global Wood Markets Info (GWMI) expects lumber to trade mainly between USD 535 and USD 575/mbf during Q4 2026, before a smaller North American production base and a potential improvement in US housing create firmer conditions during 2027.