Finland's timber market will begin to recover during this year, especially as a result of the reduction in standing inventories, Harvesting will also be slightly higher than last year.
The annual average prices of wood will fall this year, especially for pulpwood. The decline in prices will push stumpage earnings from private forests downward, according to the forest sector forecast by Pellervo Economic Research PTT.
“The timber market has been sluggish in recent months, but the situation is expected to recover during the current year. In the background is the reduction in wood inventories last year, when wood use increased clearly, even though the harvesting volume and especially timber trade declined,” says forest economist Olli Korhonen.
Finland's forest industry’s wood use increased last year by an estimated five per cent, influenced in particular by the strong rise in sawn timber production and exports. This year, the volume of wood use will rise considerably more moderately, by about one per cent.
In 2027, the increase will still be about one per cent from the current year. The forecast estimates that sawn timber production will remain in moderate growth and the wood demand of the pulp industry will be approximately at last year’s level.
The development is also visible in wood harvesting. The end of last year was exceptionally quiet in wood harvesting, and in the last quarter of the year the harvesting volume remained at the lowest level in a decade. This year, harvesting volumes are expected to rise by a couple of per cent and next year by about one per cent.
Timber trade in Finland recovers after a quiet winter
Timber trade started last year briskly, but demand quieted towards the end of the year, when exceptionally few deals were concluded. Also at the beginning of the current year, timber trade has been clearly below average compared with recent years, although some recovery has been observed in spruce-dominated regeneration fellings, in some areas accelerated by the Hannes storm.
Towards the end of the year, demand in the timber market is expected to gradually turn to growth. In addition to the increase in wood use, this is influenced by the reduction of buyers’ standing inventories last year, when harvesting clearly exceeded trade volumes. This year, standing sales will increase by four per cent compared with last year. Next year, the increase will continue, and trade volumes will grow by six per cent from the current year.
Pulpwood prices seek a lower balance level
Last autumn, wood prices fell sharply from a record-high level, with the bottom reached in January. This year, prices will rise moderately from the bottom, but the annual average price will remain lower than last year, especially for pulpwood.
The annual average price of pulpwood will fall by 15 per cent. The decline will be seen in both softwood and birch pulpwood. Demand for pulpwood is also reduced by the decline in the energy use of wood. Next year, price development will stabilise and the average price of pulpwood will rise slightly.
The annual average price of sawlogs will decline only moderately from last year. Demand for spruce logs is slightly stronger than for pine logs, and its average price will fall by just under two per cent, while the average price of pine logs will decline by about three per cent. Next year, log prices will rise by about two per cent.
Stumpage earnings decline this year
Lower wood prices will be reflected in stumpage earnings from Finnish private forests, which will fall by about four per cent this year to just under three billion euros. In 2025, nominal stumpage earnings still increased by about two per cent, supported by strong timber market activity at the beginning of the year.
Next year, stumpage earnings will increase by about three per cent, as the market sees slight growth in harvesting, timber trade and prices.
| Export markets | 2026e | 2027e | Wood market | 2026e | 2027e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paper (number) | -5% | 0% | Use of wood in the forest industry | 1% | 1% |
| Paper (price) | 1% | 1% | |||
| Carton (number) | 1% | 2% | Market research | 2% | 1% |
| Carton (price) | 0% | 2% | |||
| Mass¹ (number) | 2% | 0% | Timber stores in private forests | 4% | 6% |
| Mass¹ (price) | 3% | 1% | Nominal price of wood² | ||
| Sawn timber (number) | 4% | 2% | log | -3% | 2% |
| Sawn timber (price) | 3% | 2% | fiber | -15% | 1% |
| Plywood (number) | 2% | 6% | Gross stumpage revenue from private forests | -4% | 3% |
| Plywood (price) | 2% | 2% |
¹ mainly pulp
² vertical stores, annual average price
