Homebuilders
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US homebuilders buy time with huge backlogs
The US housing market has fallen off a cliff, but for now, homebuilders are biding their time. As bad as things look, odds are they will want to ramp up their production at least somewhat in a few more months. The key to the outlook in 2023 is the huge order backlogs that builders accumulated when mortgage rates were still at rock bottom and sales surged during the pandemic. When the housing market slowed earlier this year, that backlog bought homebuilders time to wait out the slump. Though sales have been weak for months, a large chunk of the new homes and earnings builders will deliver in 2023 are based on orders banked in the first half of 2022. As we get into the new year, those order backlogs will shrink and it will be time to think about building a new book of orders for 2024. So while housing starts have slowed for awhile, it won’t take much for them to pick up before... Continue reading
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December 15, 2022
US homebuilders buy time with huge backlogs
The US housing market has fallen off a cliff, but for now, homebuilders are biding their time. As bad as things look, odds are they will want to ramp up their production at least somewhat in a few more months. The key to the outlook in 2023 is the huge order backlogs that builders accumulated when mortgage rates were still at rock bottom and sales surged during the pandemic. When the housing market slowed earlier this year, that backlog bought homebuilders time to wait out the slump. Though sales have been weak for months, a large chunk of the new homes and earnings builders will deliver in 2023 are based on orders banked in the first half of 2022. As we get into the new year, those order backlogs will shrink and it will be time to think about building a new book of orders for 2024. So while housing starts have slowed for awhile, it won’t take much for them to pick up before... Continue reading
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December 15, 2022
US homebuilders buy time with huge backlogs
The US housing market has fallen off a cliff, but for now, homebuilders are biding their time. As bad as things look, odds are they will want to ramp up their production at least somewhat in a few more months. The key to the outlook in 2023 is the huge order backlogs that builders accumulated when mortgage rates were still at rock bottom and sales surged during the pandemic. When the housing market slowed earlier this year, that backlog bought homebuilders time to wait out the slump. Though sales have been weak for months, a large chunk of the new homes and earnings builders will deliver in 2023 are based on orders banked in the first half of 2022. As we get into the new year, those order backlogs will shrink and it will be time to think about building a new book of orders for 2024. So while housing starts have slowed for awhile, it won’t take much for them to pick up before... Continue reading