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January 21, 2020

Global outlook for wood pellet prices

Global outlook for wood pellet prices

The price of pellets will be heavily influenced by long-term contracts for wood pellets. In fact, the volatility of the spot market increases because majority of the market is under long-term contract. Since such a large percentage of the market is already under long-term take-or-pay contracts, when the market is in periods of excess demand or excess supply, the majority of the market correction has to take place within the 10-20 per cent of the total market that is traded on spot. In the long run, the contract price and spot price should converge around a market equilibrium price.

Historical prices for delivered pellets

The historical delivered (CIF) price of wood pellets from international trade data. The value and quantity of imported pellets reflects the actual prices that buyers are paying for the fuel. Most pellets are traded under long-term contracts. Some pellets (probably less than 15 per cent of total trade) are traded on the spot market.

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