For much of the past three years, Swedish sawmills have been waiting for the same thing: a convincing recovery in the US housing market. That recovery has again been pushed further into the distance.
The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, while signalling that another increase could follow during 2026. At the same time, the ten-year US Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Mortgage costs have risen with it, construction has slowed and housing starts are moving in the wrong direction for lumber producers.
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