Ocean freight has stopped moving as a single market for lumber, panels and pulp. Shanghai–Rotterdam rates fell in early September as carriers cautiously restored Suez capacity, while Gulf deliveries became more difficult after traffic through Hormuz returned to its lowest level since May. In the Black Sea, the availability and insurance cost of acceptable tonnage are increasingly more important than the nominal distance between loading and discharge ports.

For current wood transactions, this divergence changes the calculation behind every CFR and CIF offer. Lower benchmark container rates do not necessarily produce a lower landed price once bunker surcharges, transshipment risk, reduced free time and possible discharge at an alternative port are included. The variables now are the actual routing used by the carrier, the validity of the freight quotation and who carries the cost when the booked destination can no longer be served.

This is no longer comparable to the broad container shortage during the pandemic, when almost every major route moved in the same direction. Vessel capacity exists, but it is being redistributed unevenly between the Cape of Good Hope, Suez, the Gulf and the principal east–west trades. A shipment from Asia to northern Europe may cost less than it did several weeks ago, while a European cargo destined for the Gulf can face a higher risk premium, a shorter booking window and no firm assurance that it will be discharged at the port originally nominated.